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portal Serasa 06/01/2011 Experian

Serasa Indicator Perspective of Experian Consumer Credit rose 0.3% in April, reaching the level of 99.6. It was the second consecutive monthly increase after a sequence of ten uninterrupted monthly declines. How

by its construction methodology, the index has the property to anticipate cyclical movements of credit with six months notice of the oscillations indicator in the region slightly below the 100 level indicate that the current process of deceleration of consumer credit is expected to close during the next quarter. From there, go into a more balanced expansion route (neutral impact in terms of accelerating economic growth and inflation rate).

The effects of macro-prudential measures, the elevation of the Tax on Financial Operations (IOF), the rise in delinquency levels and the current trajectory of increasing the basic interest rate (Selic rate) will continue moderating the rhythm expansion of consumer credit during the next month, completing its cycle slowdown, economists emphasize the Serasa Experian. Companies

Indicator Perspective Serasa Experian Credit Business decreased by 0.6% in April 2011, the seventh consecutive monthly decline for this indicator, reaching a value of 99.6.

This result indicates that the current trend of deceleration in consumer credit should cause a more noticeable slowdown in economic activity, especially during the second half of this year, and also put pressure on the credit back to productive activity. Indeed, in a scenario the slower growth of the Brazilian economy, the demand from companies for working capital also tends to grow more slowly, economists note Serasa Experian.

Indicators Methodology Serasa Experian Perspective The purpose of the indicators Serasa Experian Perspective is foreseeing a time horizon of six months, at which stage of the cycle are the following economic variables: (i) activity economic, (ii) real concessions on consumer credit, (iii) royal grants of credit to businesses, (iv) default by the consumer and (v) insolvency of enterprises. In general, economic variables exhibit cycles consisting of four phases: (1) expansion, (2) reversal, (3) and crisis (4) recovery. Indicators Serasa Experian Perspective show precisely the cyclical position for the next six months, each of these variables. Each indicator

Serasa Experian Perspective is built by analyzing the explanatory power and advance explanation from a universe of 325 economic and financial variables on the variable-goal. To this end, all 325 variables "candidates" as well as the variable-goal were filtered using the wavelet technique, allowing us to study the relationships between the "candidates" and the variable-goal on several time scales. Today, the wavelets are adopted in various fields such as physics (molecular dynamics, astrophysics, geophysics - earthquake prediction, quantum mechanics), image processing (EEG and DNA analysis, weather, speech recognition and artificial vision) and compression data (JPEG 2000 uses this technique.)

If we use the time scales ranging from 16 to 32 months and 32 to 64 months, which feature tracks the movements of business cycles.

For each time scale were selected, of 325 variables "candidates," those who anticipate significantly, the variable-goal from 6 to 18 months in advance. Selected variables "candidates", they were aggregated through the application of principal components, after being placed in the same phase of 6 months compared to the variable-goal.

The composite score, ie in each time scale, the projection models between the variable-objective and main components, placed in base 100, is the indicator Serasa Experian Perspective.